Doing it by the book

December 4, 2008 at 9:35 am (Uncategorized)

So I was throwing out some trash and I uncovered the fantasy football magazine that I had paid 8 bucks for this past summer to help prepare me for the FFL season. Just for kicks I thought I would take a look at some of their projections and compare it with how things actually worked out.

ok, ok, so only a nerd would do something like this and only a nerd would enjoy it. So if you’re a nerd, this post is for you…

First of all the publication was, Pro Football Weekly: Fantasy Football Guide 2008. I am going to first list their top 10 players for each position (top 5 for TE) and then tell you where they ranked in actual points in our league followed by the actual top ten players and where they were projected to be by the magazine. Some players poor performances were a results of injuries or suspensions but the point of this exercise is to show just how much of a crap shoot fantasy football drafting really is… (The players in bold are players who are on my roster)

QB-

1. Tom Brady (IN)                 Drew Brees (4)

2. Peyton Manning (7)          Kurt Warner (25)

3. Tony Romo (4)                 Jay Cutler (10)

4. Drew Brees (1)               Tony Romo (3)

5. Carson Palmer (37)          Philip Rivers (18)

6. Derek Anderson (27)       Aaron Rodgers (15)

7. Ben Roethlisberger (18)   Peyton Manning (2)

8. Donavan McNabb (8)       Same

9. Matt Hasselbeck (38)      Eli Manning (12)

10. Jay Cutler (3)                 Chad Pennington (35)

RB

1. LT (14)                           Michael Turner (25)

2. Brian Westbrook (13)     Adrian Peterson (3)

3. Adrian Peterson (2)        Thomas Jones (24)

4. Steven Jackson (21)       DeAngelo Williams (33)

5. Joseph Addai (32)          Matt Forte (43)

6. Clinton Portis (6)           Same

7. Frank Gore (10)             Steve Slaton (unranked)

8. Marshawn Lynch (12)    Brandon Jacobs (18)

9. Larry Johnson (24)      Marion Barber (12)

10. Ryan Grant (19)            Frank Gore (10)

WR

1. Randy Moss (12)                  Roddy White (27)

2. Terrell Owens (10)               Calvin Johnson (22)

3. Braylon Edwards (31)           Anquan Boldin (14)

4. Larry Fitzgerald (5)              Greg Jennings (17)

5. Reggie Wayne (15)               Larry Fitzgerald (4)

6. Andre Johnson (6)                Same

7. Marques Colston (51)      Steve Smith (8)

8. Steve Smith (7)                    Lance Moore (unranked)

9. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (18)  Santana Moss (29)

10. Chad Johnson (64)            Terrell Owens (2)

TE

1. Jason Witten (2)     Tony Gonzalez (4)

2. Antonio Gates (3)      Jason Witten (1)

3. Kelen Winslow (12)    Antonio Gates (2)

4. Tony Gonzalez (1)  Chris Cooley (5)

5. Chris Cooley (4)         Owen Daniels (10)

If you had gone by the magazine and somehow mangaed to get every one of their first choices this would have been your starting roster…

QB- Tom Brady (0 points but a Matt Cassel Handcuff gives you 179 points)

RB- LT (156 points)

RB- Brian Westbrook (164 points)

WR- Randy Moss (155 points)

WR- TO (159 points)

TE- Jason Witten (129 points)

K- Steven Gostkowski (130 points)

DST- Minnesota (208 points)

1280 points or 98.4 per game. That would be the 4th highest score in the league. But keep in mind that was every single top pick in the magazine!

Natures Finest was fortunate this season where his two biggest busts (Larry Johnson and Marques Colston) were counteracted by a shrwed draft choice (unranked Steve Slaton) and a deft free agent acquisition (unranked Lance Moore). Also Jason Witten was not drafted by Natured Finest but was acquired at the trade deadline in an effort to keep him from going to another team.

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5 Comments

  1. danielbalc said,

    5 of the top 10 QBs ended up top 10
    3 of the top 10 RBs ended up top 10
    4 of the top 10 WRs ended up top 10
    4 of the top 5 TEs ended up top 5

    50%
    30%
    40%
    80%

    And people always harass me for spending too much on Tight Ends. hmmmm

    Biggest bust in the draft (not counting Brady who missed the whole season with injury) has to be Chad Ocho Cinco who scored a mere 45 points and cost 22 against the cap. All without an injury. In fact the only game he missed was because he was suspended. he even caught passes in every game he played but only scored points in 4 of the 12! Tough break Rob.

    Biggest sleeper of the year is a tough call. Three candidates come to mind all RB’s…
    DeAngelo Williams was supposed to have lost his job to a rookie. Ugh nope. (11th highest offensive scorer)
    Matt Forte was supposed to follow the trend of Chicago RB’s who stink. Ugh nope. (13th highest offensive scorer)
    Steve Slaton was supposed to be behind Ahman Green in the pass happy Texans offense. Ugh Nope. (16th highest offensive scorer)

    Kurt Warner should also be considered the sleeper of the year but I don’t know why anyone ever sleeps on him. He has done this to us so many times!

  2. Save For Retirement said,

    I would like to add Roy Williams as Biggest Draft Bust. 38 Fantasy Points and cost 20 on the cap.

    I wonder where he ranked in your magazine’s preseason ranking.

    This may be a big bust or a bad draft pick

  3. danielbalc said,

    Well lets see in the mag Roy Williams was #16. Ahead of him were…
    Torry Holt (39)
    Plaxico Burress (46)
    Wes Welker (24)
    Anquan Boldin (3)
    Brandon Marshall (15)

    Roy finished as the 60th best WR. That’s pretty darn bad. but with Torry Holt and Plaxico playing almost as poorly and costly nearly as much but without the benefit of the doubt you get from being traded It’s hard to say roy was much worse than they.

    We should all learn a lesson on overspending for WR’s.

  4. danielbalc said,

    After looking at it a bit more Roy Williams and Ocho Stinko’s numbers are nearly identical in their bustness.

    stinko cost 22 and scored 45 averaging just 2 points per dollar spent
    Roy cost 20 and scored just 38 averaging 1.9 points per dollar spent.

    for those who think LT wasn’t a huge bust consider he put up 156 while costing 80 bucks so he averaged 1.9 points per dollar spent. the difference is 80 dollars on the ca is much worse than 20 so I guess that’s pretty busted.

    at the same time he still finished the regular season as the 15th highest scoring RB. so I guess that’s not too busty.

  5. terrellowens said,

    Hey guys,

    Dont give up on the Dallas Cowboys just yet!
    or any of your players, we still have 3 games left; Any Given Sunday:)

    Come check the Official iLove ME SOME ME T-Shirts!!!
    http://www.terrellowens.wordpress.com

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